A tight supply/demand balance in NSW over the week (4th June to 8th June 2018) triggers various activity

Over the prior week (Monday 4th June to Friday 8th June 2018), the NSW region – and, to a lesser extent, the broader NEM – experienced a tight supply/demand balance.

In response to what was happening during the week, we saw a range of activity ourselves, including:

(1)  One-on-one questions with clients

Our prime focus is (and always has been) on continually enhancing how we serve our diverse and growing range of clients, who use our software (and other products) to help them understand what’s going on in the energy market.

Given that the events of that week were so complex (and coincidentally that I had pre-arranged commitments in NSW with a number of clients & others) it was not really a surprise that we fielded a number of questions (some described here) about what was going on.  We appreciate these questions – as they stretch our capability to understand, and explain clearly, complex events such as what happened last week.

(2)  On social media

On the evening of Thursday 7th June, I had a brief amount of time to post this snapshot of the NEM from NEM-Watch v10 on social media (LinkedIn, and Twitter) – which led to some discussions on social media, and elsewhere:

Over the weekend that followed, I was able to grab a few hours to take a more measured look at what had occurred through the week, as a result of which I could post the article “Recapping a shaky week for the supply-demand balance in the NSW region last week” on WattClarity on Monday 11th June.

(3)  In the traditional media

As a result of all of the above, and what we have done in the past, it was also not really a surprise to find ourselves referenced and quoted in the more traditional media over that week, and in the discussion that followed.  Here are some of the references we noted:

Saturday 9th June

As noted on the NEMwatch portal, we found our (RenewEconomy-sponsored) NEMwatch Live Supply & Demand widget referenced in the Newcastle Herald.

Journalist Andrew White from the Australian asked our CEO (Paul McArdle) a few questions before publishing an article on Saturday 9th June “Outages see power prices hit the roof” – including this paragraph:

The founder of Global-Roam consultancy Paul McArdle said only 6000MW of NSW coal ­capacity was available yesterday, which was an improvement on Thursday, but about 2000MW less than at the same time last week.
(though note that we’re a software company, not a consultancy)

Interested readers can see the chart (generated with our NEMreview v7 historical analysis tool) provided to Andrew on Friday 8th June here:

Mon 11th June

Drawing on the more detailed analysis published on Wattclarity on Monday morning, Andrew White from the Australian was able to publish an article on Monday 11th June “Paul McArdle of WattClarity: NSW power outages ‘threat to industry’” .

Tue 12th June

On Tuesday, Ben Potter from the AFR included some references to the WattClarity article in his article “Big power resists AEMO ‘strategic reserve’ push after NSW squeeze” .

Wed 13th June

After we’d both attended the launch of the Victorian Energy Policy Center in Melbourne on Wednesday 13th June, Ben Potter from the AFR also included reference to the WattClarity review of the prior week in his article “Energy expert to Tomago Aluminium: Buy cheap wind and solar power” .

 

 

 

References to WattClarity “astonishing Q2 prices” article referenced in various locations

References to WattClarity “astonishing Q2 prices” article referenced in various locations

On Thursday 6th July 2017, I posted this analysis on WattClarity ® about some “off the chart” movements in average prices, and pricing patterns, across all 5 regions of the NEM – but most pronounced in VIC, TAS and SA.  This analysis was performed using NEMreview v6.

Following from this, we saw the analysis referenced in a range of locations, some of which will be progressively added below:

in the Australian Financial Review

On Friday 7th July we saw the analysis referenced:

in the ABC

Various commentaries were made by others* on ABC Radio referencing the analysis, and I noticed that:

*  note that we don’t, ourselves, speak on TV or Radio, as it takes our time away from directly serving our client base.

across Social Media

various comments were made across social media (LinkedIn and Twitter are the ones I mostly use).

 

 

NEM-Review used on the ABC’s 7.30 report to explain how electricity prices have changed over summer

Hugh Saddler from the Australian National University, has used NEM-Review to help explain the state of the electricity market on the ABC’s 7.30 report which was broadcast on the the 13th of February 2017. In the report, several industry experts provide insights on the multi-state energy crisis over the summer that had been developing for several months.

Energy blogger uses NEM-Review to analyse historical demand data

Energy, science and technology blogger Ketan Joshi published an article on Monday which posed the question ‘Is Sydney’s heat decoupling from demand spikes?’. Within the post, he uses historical data from NEM-Review to compare New South Wales’ average demand between 2000-2015 against the daily average demand so far in 2016:

“Curiously, demand isn’t much higher or lower than the past five years. Keep in mind this comparison is slightly different – averages from 2000 to 2015, rather than temperature averages from 1859 to 2015 (like-for-like also shows average 2016 temps above the 2010-2015 average, though).”

“Regardless, there’s a novel disconnect, here. Sydney’s  unusually high temps aren’t driving unusually high demand.”

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Explaining why large energy users are concerned about last week’s machinations in South Australia

A week of unusual occurrences in the South Australian energy space fascinated many onlookers, particularly large energy users.

After fielding a number of calls from large energy users in South Australia who were wanting to know what was going on, our CEO, Paul McArdle wrote this article on WattClarity to explain why they were concerned, to note observations about what happened and to state the possible implications for the future.

Government department gets value from using NEM-Watch and NEM-Review

One of our government department clients has recently left us a comment after using NEM-Watch and NEM-Review for an extended period of time:

“Thank you very much for your excellent service. We, at the Department, highly value both of your products (NEM-Watch and NEM-Review), which we use on a regular basis and find them extremely useful in the provision of any NEM related data analysis”

Dr T S Prasad – Manager Analysis & Modelling, Department of Water & Energy

7th of April 2008

It’s fantastic to see that government departments are continuing to get value out of our products, particularly when generating context-sensitive insights into data.